"SHOULD JOE GO?"

 “SHOULD JOE GO?”

I am thinking and worrying about the Presidential election in November.  I started to name this blog “Joe Should Go,” but I couldn’t quite bring myself to do that.  The time is running short, but if President Biden wanted to step down as the Democratic front-runner, there is still a small window left.  Lyndon Johnson announced that he would not run for re-election at the end of March of 1968.  That did not turn out well for the Democrats, but Bobby Kennedy was on the rise until his assassination in June of that year, and I believe that he would have beaten Nixon had he not been killed.  There are a lot of parallels between 1968 and 2024 – a sitting President whom many in his own party have great doubts about their chances for re-election; the Democratic convention in Chicago in 1968, which turned into a disaster for the Democrats, as Mayor Richard Daley manhandled the anti-war demonstrators; and a scary Republican candidate.

Up until the Michigan presidential primary, I was feeling OK about President Biden’s chances to defeat Trump.  Michigan was the first presidential primary with significant urban centers, and for me that meant that it was a key reflection of what we might see in November.  The numbers in Michigan were not good for Biden beating Trump.  There were the noteworthy “uncommitted” voters  totaling over 101,000 in the Democratic primary, many of them a protest vote against Biden’s failure to uphold human values in the war in Gaza.  

    More disturbing to me, however, were the vote totals in the primaries.  Some 768,000+ voted in the Democratic primary, and Biden won over 80% of those.  But, over 1,102,000 people voted in the Republican primary, meaning that 334,000 more people in Michigan voted for Republicans than for Democrats.  Indeed, Trump received almost as many votes as all the Democratic candidates combined.  I recognize that the Republican primary was more contested than the Democratic, but the vote differential is staggering to me.  It means that many Democratic voters stayed home for the primary, and while they may not stay home in November for the general election, making up 334,000 votes is a tall order in such a swing state. 

    I’m thinking that Joe should go.  There are strong Democratic candidates waiting in the wings – Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer, Cory Booker, Stacey Abrams, Gavin Newsom, to name a few.  The time is exceedingly short, but with Trump’s legal troubles, there is much more of an open window for new Democratic candidates. Obviously, none of them will step in unless Biden steps out.  Every time that I see President Biden on tv, he looks more and more frail.  He has done a good job as President, but he is simply too old to run for a second term.  If he stays in the race and gets the nomination, I will work hard for him and vote for him, but I do not believe that he can beat Trump, given what the Michigan results look like. 

     I feel today as I felt when President Biden announced for re-election on April 24 last year– he is too old to run for re-election.  As Trump’s legal woes mount (and his age is showing too,), there is a good chance for a Democrat not named President Biden to win the presidency.  And, given the nature of Trump’s self-delusional narcissism, it is absolutely imperative that he not return to the Presidency.  I’m guessing that is why Governor Nikki Haley is staying in the race, figuring and hoping that Trump’s legal troubles will do him in before the election in November.  And, I do not think that President Biden can beat Haley, if she were the Republican nominee.  The New York election interference Trump trial at the end of this month will tell us a lot, but with all the delays, none of those are a given before the election.

So, I believe that President Biden still has time to bow out of the Presidential election, but only a few weeks.  As I wrote in an earlier blog at the beginning of the year, this year of 2024 will be one of the most chaotic and most consequential of many in recent history.  We have a lot of events left to occur and to digest, but I do believe that Joe should go.